European Commodity Winners This Week

Robusta Coffee 10-T (RMN25), 13%

Fundamentally,  Brazil’s Minas Gerais region received about 89% of the historical average of rain with some impact on prices.

Also Domestic Robusta prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands rose significantly as 2023/24 output is estimated to drop to a four-year low, possibly under 1.6 million tons. 

Farmers are hoarding stocks due to expectations of higher prices, tightening supply in the export market.

Recently, the U.S. imposed tariffs of up to 46% on Vietnamese coffee, threatening to disrupt traditional trade routes and increase costs for roasters globally

ICE Robusta coffee made a bullish morning start candle pattern on April 9 ending the temporary crash started on April 3. This provided a unique opportunity for long positions and now prices are riding above the 10, 20 and 50 EMAs. Next profit target: 5,600.

Nickel 3M (Cash) (P8Y00), 9.72% 

Fundamentally, Indonesia, which accounts for approximately 40% of global nickel supply, has increased its output, contributing to a market surplus.

As a result, the government is planning a reduction in nickel ore production to stabilize prices, which have declined by 40% over the past two years. 

Demand for nicke has been impacted by a shift from nickel-cobalt batteries to nickel-free lithium batteries that power electric vehicles. This sector represents 15% of total
nickel demand.

LME Nickel hit a low on April 7 at 13,865, a level not seen since 2020 and the market took notice, producing a long-legged doji pattern that session that
turned into a sharp reversal. This was the ideal entry for bullish positions.

Daily prices are now trading above the 10 and 20 EMAs. For longs 16,500 remains the next profit target.

Last LME stocks 202,818 tons, which is robust compared to the last two years.

LME April last reported net funds position is a weak -2833 contract, however this is a an important recovery from the average net short positions seen since October 2024 giving it a bullish bias for now.

European Commodity Losers This Week 

VSTOXX Futures (May 2025) (DVK25), -16% 

The worst may be over for the main European volatility index, picking at a year record of 35.15 on April 9.

The driver for this panic was the U.S. government’s global import tariffs and their potential to cause disruption in international commerce that could trigger a recession. The impact on commodities from this scenario is bearish, as it was under President Donald Trump’s first term. 

However, now that this initial impact has been digested, the market will look for “exceptions” or “modifications.” Trump has also announced a 90-day pause on most “reciprocal” tariffs. 

Watch out for levels below the 50 EMA (currently at 22) for a return to “normal” volatility across all markets.

Dutch TTF Gas (May 2025) (TGK25), -5% 

The European Union mandates require gas storage facilities to be filled to 90% capacity by November. Traders anticipate challenges in replenishing storage. However, countries like German or Poland
have the capacity to quickly shift from gas to coal for electricity generation.

Asian markets LNG gas prices are touching one-year lows as low demand there persists.

While The European Commission is contemplating allowing companies to terminate long-term Russian gas contracts, this would not be achieve before 2027.

The International Energy Agency forecasts a 25% increase in European LNG imports in 2025, however this does not solve the dependency on imported gas and still leaves exposure to geopolitical tensions.

Technicals: The contract has experienced a notable decrease of approximately 32% year-to-date, indicating a bearish trend in the market. Prices are below the 10, 20 and 50 EMAs. The last 3 sessions show an attempt to turn the trend. Watch out for crossings above the 10 EMA for trend reversals and long opportunities.​